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Statistics Expert Witness
Dr. Anthony Hayter

       Anthony.Hayter@du.edu              303 518 6237
California
Florida
New York
Texas

Fulbright Scholar
Thailand
2011-2 and 2014

  

I visited the Department of Statistics at Chulalongkorn Business School, hosted by Dr. Seksan Kiatsupaibul.  Chulalongkorn University is the oldest university in Thailand and has long been considered the country's most prestigious university.  I was able to participate in several research projects that the university was conducting.  Firstly, I participated in a national survey concerning the effectiveness of microfinance loans from the government to rural communities.  These short-term loans are vital for the country’s farming communities, and the survey was an important tool for improving their management.  I also helped to analyze credit risk ratings of Thai businesses.  The purpose of this project was to develop a model to predict these international credit ratings based only upon basic well-known accounting ratios.  This was part of a larger project to provide an alternative framework to calculate default correlations and “credit value at risk” measures with a credit scoring model.

Furthermore, I was also able to work on a risk management study for Thailand’s rural social security program.  The objective of this project was to develop statistical tools to manage the risks that arise in micro-financial systems that are operated by local communities in rural areas of Thailand.  Finally, I was also able to collaborate on the analysis of data concerning the interarrival times of abnormal internet connections for a statistical research team's server.  A web server is often subjected to attacks by hackers which can deteriorate the service or which can even bring down the server.  It is therefore common for a server to protect itself with a security system, and our task was to develop a protection system with an algorithm that identified abnormal connections from external servers in order to bar them from entering the system.

I was greatly inspired to pursue this Fulbright Scholarship by the quality of the faculty at Chulalongkorn University and the various opportunities the university provided to participate in Thailand’s statistical community.  For example, the Department of Statistics at Chulalongkorn University has agreements with the National Statistical Office of Thailand to conduct joint research projects.  This office is responsible for the overall collection and assimilation of statistics in Thailand.  Personally, I have always felt that research and statistical work are much more rewarding when conducted in collaboration with colleagues, and the Fulbright Scholarship allowed me to benefit from exposure to new problems and the expertise of new colleagues.

My enduring impressions from my work in Thailand are of the hospitality provided by my Thai colleagues, together with their good-natured cheerfulness.  I was also impressed by the vibrant statistical community and the quality of their work.  Driving through rural Thailand in a minivan with my colleagues in order to meet and interview the local community leaders as part of our data collection efforts was a happy and unique experience.  Meeting in the local temples, our student team busily transferred the data from the stacks of handwritten account books into their computers.  Perhaps one of the most rewarding aspects of my Fulbright Scholarship was working with the incredibly accomplished students at Chulalongkorn University, writing research papers with them, and advising and helping them to apply for doctorate programs in the USA.  Though my visits to Thailand were short, the connections that I made are long term.

My connections with Chulalongkorn University have been particularly productive for research publications due to the assimilation of our different skills and experiences.  In addition, my Fulbright Scholarship experiences have provided a wealth of interesting cases and examples for classroom teaching.  It is so rewarding to realize how mutual interests in data analysis and theoretical concepts can unite people from otherwise such different and varied cultural backgrounds and experiences.



  
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                                  Anthony.Hayter@du.edu  

                                  303 518 6237
Statistics Expert Witness
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